STRATEGIC MISSTEPS AND THE PRISONER'S DILEMMA: ANALYSING THE UNITED STATES' PROLONGED ENGAGEMENT IN AFGHANISTAN
Keywords:
Prisoner’s Dilemma, Taliban, Intervention, Strategies, Conflict ResolutionAbstract
This study examines the strategic failure of the United States’ intervention in Afghanistan (2001–2021) through the analytical lens of game theory, specifically the Prisoner’s Dilemma. The research asks: why did cooperation between the United States, its allies, regional actors, and Afghan stakeholders repeatedly fail despite shared interests in stabilizing Afghanistan? Methodologically, the article employs a qualitative case study combined with a conceptual application of game theory, using historical analysis and secondary sources to interpret strategic interactions among key actors, including the United States, NATO allies, the Afghan government, the Taliban, and regional powers such as Pakistan. The Prisoner’s Dilemma framework is operationalized by identifying actors, strategies, and strategic payoffs that shaped decision-making during different phases of the conflict. The findings suggest that persistent mistrust, competing strategic interests, and short-term incentive structures led actors to repeatedly choose defection over cooperation. These dynamics produced a series of suboptimal outcomes that prolonged the conflict and undermined long-term stabilization efforts. The study concludes that the failure of U.S. strategy in Afghanistan cannot be explained solely by military limitations but rather by structural cooperation failures within a multi-actor strategic environment.
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